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27 July
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How to make sauerkraut

Sauerkraut with heirloom carrots: A crucial first step is to source quality, organic produce thriving with good bacteria. Photo: James Boddington After you have removed the outer tough and dirty leaves of the cabbage, cut it into quarters, remove the core then slice into fine slivers. Photo: James Boddington
Nanjing Night Net

Rinse the carrots gently then cut them into thin strips. Photo: James Boddington

Alternatively, use a food processor or mandolin to get the cabbage and carrots sliced thinly. Photo: James Boddington

Mix the vegetables together using your (clean) hands. Photo: James Boddington

Add salt, spices and herbs to the mixed vegetables. Photo: James Boddington

Toss the vegetables, salt, herbs and spices together thoroughly using your hands. Photo: James Boddington

After the salted mix has rested for 10-20 minutes, pound it to release liquid from vegetables. Photo: James Boddington

Place mixture into a jar or crock and press down firmly as you go. Photo: James Boddington

After pressing down, the vegetables should be completely immersed in the liquid with no air bubbles. Photo: James Boddington

Place some cabbage leaves like a lid over top of the mixture; the vegetables should have no contact with the air. Photo: James Boddington

Use a weight to compress the leaves down onto the mixture and leave for 24 hours. Remove weight then screw on lid (if using a jar, left). Leave at room temperature 36-48 hours then refrigerate. Photo: James Boddington

Arabella Forge’s step-by-step guide to making sauerkraut. Photo: James Boddington

These bacteria are essential to intestinal health; they make nutrients in food more easily available and make the food easier to digest.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

27 July
Comments Off on The tricky part of AirBnB

The tricky part of AirBnB

There are plenty of ways you could describe Alex, but I’m going to go with “interesting”.
Nanjing Night Net

At least, that’s how his profile made him sound.

Alex was a Beatles fan, you could tell by the Fab Four poster pasted on his kitchen wall. Oh, and the fact that the headline on his Airbnb entry was: “I love the Beatles!”

He was also a keen musician if the guitar in one of the photos and the speaker system in another were anything to go by.

Like I said, interesting. His apartment sounded interesting, too. Most people lead the little description of their place with something about the area of town it’s in or the number of bedrooms it has. Alex’s was a simple one-liner: “Funky in a good way.”

That got me over the line. Well, that and I had few other choices.

I was heading to the Swedish port town of Gothenburg, by all accounts a funky place in its own right, full of record stores and hip cafes.

It wasn’t, however, cheap. Nowhere in Sweden is cheap. The most basic hotel can set you back €100 ($127). So for Gothenburg I’d decided to think outside the box.

See, you don’t have to stay in hostels or hotels when you travel any more. You can go for something cheaper and homier.

Some people opt for couch surfing, dossing on the sofas of generous fellow travellers for the cost of providing interesting conversation. Others use websites such as Airbnb, hiring people’s spare rooms and/or entire apartments or houses around the world. I’d done it plenty of times. I’d already stayed in a top-floor flat in Berlin, in a two-bedder in Seville, in a lovely room in Amsterdam and what was basically a penthouse suite in Barcelona. All had worked out spectacularly – they’d been exactly like the photos on the website and had cost less than a pokey hotel room.

So I was confident in Alex, even though his Airbnb entry was on the quirkier side. According to Alex, I’d have access to the “adventure room” during my stay. I’d be surrounded by “vintage furniture”.

I’d be staying in “an area quickly becoming a haven for Gothenburg’s young, emerging artists”.

And – here’s the clincher – Alex promised I could “SLEEP IN AS LONG AS YOU WANT!”

He added: “Unlike every hotel in the civilised world, we will not wake you up.” Awesome. Also, unlike every hotel in Gothenburg, he was going to charge only €44 a night for me to sleep in his spare room, cook in his kitchen and relax in his adventure room. So I paid my money and signed up.

The arrival is always the trickiest part of an Airbnb stay. Given it’s not a hotel, there’s no 24-hour reception, so an appointment has to be made with the probably-non-English-speaking owner to collect keys and be shown around. This was going to prove a particular problem in Alex’s case, because he was on holiday in the US and had been for the past three months.

Fortunately, one of his previous tenants was still in Gothenburg and still had her key, so she’d be able to do the handover. I met Stephanie on a typically cold, grey Gothenburg afternoon, a light drizzle falling on our faces as we found each other near the central train station.

“How long are you staying with Alex?” Stephanie asked.

“Two nights.”

“Oh,” she said, looking slightly dubious. “That should be enough.”

We said our goodbyes and I jumped on the tram to Alex’s place, alighting in a fairly drab neighbourhood of uniform apartment blocks and quiet streets.

I had a feeling already that this area was becoming a haven for only one of Gothenburg’s young, emerging artists: Alex.

Around a corner and across a small clearing I found the door I was looking for, although as Alex hadn’t specified his apartment number I had to try the key in a few different doors before I found the right one.

I swung it open and discovered that Alex’s place was, as promised, funky. Although not in a good way. More in a dirty, hasn’t-been-aired-since-Stephanie-left way. The beds (or, rather, the mattresses on the floor) were slept in, the kitchen was messy and Alex was showing a real estate agent’s flair with his description of the furniture as “vintage”. I’d say “old”.

The “adventure room”, it turned out, was actually Alex’s bedroom, leading me to question what sort of adventure most of his guests got involved in. As Alex was on another continent, I’d sadly never find out.

Of course I’d paid my money by now, so for better or worse this would be my abode for the next two nights. I cleaned up the kitchen, ran the bed sheets through the wash and tried to enjoy myself as best I could.

On the bright side, I reasoned, with no one else living here, I really could sleep in as long as I wanted.

Have you ever used AirBnB, couch surfed, or otherwise stayed in a stranger’s home while travelling? What was your experience like? Post a comment below.

Join Ben Groundwater on a special 10-day cycling trip to historic Myanmar in November. For more details see smhshop南京夜网.au/adventureholidays.

[email protected]南京夜网

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

27 July
Comments Off on Samsung’s 5G will complement NBN, not replace it

Samsung’s 5G will complement NBN, not replace it

Super-fast wireless will never make fibre obsolete.
Nanjing Night Net

Samsung has reportedly “witnessed” one-gigabit-per-second wireless download speeds over a distance of two kilometres in its 5G trials. In theory such speeds would let you download an entire movie in seconds, on par with the gigabit speeds which the NBN will eventually deliver. So it’s time to scrap Australia’s national broadband network and just go wireless, right? Wrong.

Samsung’s so-called 5G wireless technology is still in the test phase and is at least seven years away from commercial deployment. Even if you could roll out this technology today, you’re not going to get gigabit speeds in real world conditions. The laws of physics dictate that wireless bandwidth is a shared resource and congestion is the enemy. The more people using a wireless network at once, the slower their download speeds and upload speeds. Not to mention the fact that wireless technologies are prone to interference and black spots, unlike a strand of fibre running to your door.

Whether you’re an advocate of Labor’s fibre to the home NBN plan or the Coalition’s fibre to the node alternative, you have to face the fact that a wireless-only solution for all of Australia is impractical. Sorry, but the laws of physics transcend politics and are not open to ideological debate. The only way you’re going to achieve gigabit download speeds from Samsung’s 5G network is if you’re the only person using that wireless tower – which is very unlikely to happen in the city unless you’re the sole survivor of the zombie apocalypse.

To see wireless congestion at work, you only need to look at the demise of Australia’s crowded 3G networks – which crawl to a halt in the CBD during peak times. The move to 4G LTE may have offered a reprieve, but congestion will again take its toll as more Australians upgrade to 4G devices.

Scrapping the NBN and trying to replace it solely with citywide mobile broadband would be a recipe for disaster. To get decent speeds you’d need a wireless tower on every street corner and fibre backbone to link them anyway. The role of wireless networks is to complement the NBN and cater to mobile users, not to take the place of fixed-line connections and shoulder a city’s entire broadband load. Even if you’re only using Wi-Fi enabled gadgets at home or in the office, that Wi-Fi network is probably relying on a fixed-line broadband connection.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

01 March
Comments Off on Swan puts surplus on hold

Swan puts surplus on hold

Wayne Swan Treasurer Wayne Swan poses for the media with the 2013 budget at Parliament House. Photo: Andrew Meares
Nanjing Night Net

Swan unveils $19.4b deficitBaby bonus scrapped from 2014Full budget 2013 coverage

Middle income families, parents to be, and smokers will lose out in Wayne Swan’s sixth budget designed to repair the debt-ridden bottom line and convince voters of Labor’s economic management credentials.

Declaring the budget to be about ‘‘consistency’’, Mr Swan has eschewed the traditional pre-election spendathon, opting to challenge the opposition to ‘‘choose between making motherhood statements about ending the age of entitlement, or putting their words into action’’ by backing savings initiatives.

Faced with an expected $60 billion shortfall in revenue over four years to 2015/16, the budget confirms billions in new spending on popular disability insurance and education reforms and sets out $24 billion in infrastructure projects – although not all of that represents new spending.

But it carries the political risk that its tiny projected surplus in year three will not be believed by voters, and that its savings will be seen as harsh on business and on middle-income households.

Families in the middle income bracket stand to lose some family entitlements as well as promised carbon tax compensation, while incurring new costs for higher education when scholarship grants are converted to loans.

Smokers too are to be slugged by higher costs per packet when the federal excise and customs duty is pegged to average weekly ordinary time earnings rather than inflation.

Some older Australians will benefit from the rapid fiscal consolidation via a new trial program to encourage them to bank the proceeds of downsizing to smaller homes without affecting their aged pension availability.

Outlining a plan to deliver a tiny surplus of less than $1 billion in the third year of the budget cycle, after a larger than expected deficit nearing $20 billion for 2012/13, the Treasurer has revealed the $5000 baby bonus will be scrapped from March 1, 2014, to be replaced by a lower $2000 supplement payable only to recipients of Family Tax Benefit (A).

The Family Tax Benefit upper income cut-offs – which have been traditionally indexed to take account of inflation – have also been frozen until July 1, 2017, meaning fewer families will remain eligible as their incomes grow.

The two measures will save $2.3 billion over four years as part of a claimed aggregate saving total over five years of $43 billion.

In a surprise to markets and economic commentators, even after being softened up with pre-budget warnings of a current $17 billion revenue write-down, Mr Swan has revealed a fiscal shortfall for 2012/13 of $19.4 billion  in place of what was forecast to be a budget surplus of $1.1 billion.

Business, which has made no secret of its antipathy for Labor in recent months, stands to pay more  under a suite of changes headlined ‘‘protecting the corporate tax base’’.

These include tightening the rules on profit shifting, where multinational companies load up their local arms with debt while shifting profits offshore, usually to low tax jurisdictions. Other changes include removal of immediate deductibility for expenditure on exploration. The measures will secure nearly $4.2 billion for the budget over four years.

Delivering what might well be his last budget, Mr Swan said next year’s balance sheet would show a similar deficit of $18 billion, shrinking to $11 billion in 2014/15, and tipping into the black by just $0.8 billion in 2015/16.

The wafer thin surplus is as much a political gesture for Mr Swan, who has been on the back foot since abandoning his iron-clad commitment to a surplus come-what-may in 2012/13, just before Christmas.

‘‘Because of our deep commitment to jobs and growth, we have taken the responsible course to delay the return to surplus, and due to a savage hit to tax receipts, there will be a deficit of $18 billion in 2013/14,’’ he told Parliament.

‘‘To those who would take us down the European road of savage austerity, I say the social destruction that comes from cutting too much, too hard, too fast, is not the Australian way. Instead we’re making targeted, sustainable savings of $43 billion over the forward estimates.’’

The budget forecasts slower economic growth of 2.75 per cent in 2013/14 before recovering to 3 per cent trend growth thereafter.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

01 March
Comments Off on Wedging, hedging

Wedging, hedging

ANALYSIS
Nanjing Night Net

The opening sentence of Wayne Swan’s budget speech last year was so charged with chutzpah that it invited guffaws of derision from Coalition MPs the moment he uttered it. “The four surpluses I announce tonight are a powerful endorsement of the strength of our economy, resilience of our people, and success of our policies,” he said.

The opening of this year’s speech was altogether more circumspect, less declaratory and even chastened. “Tonight this Labor government makes the choice to keep our economy strong and invest in our future to support jobs and growth in an uncertain world …”

Usually, election budgets are viewed in isolation and are replete with giveaways. This one is joined at the hip to the one that spent money it didn’t yet have, and failed to anticipate the second-biggest revenue writedown since the Great Depression. But it’s an election budget just the same.

This is not a give-away budget, but its purpose is to force Tony Abbott to nominate what he will take away.

It’s about the choices Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard have made – and the choices Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey will have to make. Will they restore the baby bonus (and, if they will, how will they fund it)? Will they reverse the decision to spend $3 billion on public transport in Melbourne (and upset the new Liberal premier and a host of commuters in marginal seats)? Will they deny New South Wales billions in funding to improve schools (and give Labor ammunition in the state where it faces a wipe-out)?

Ultimately, it’s about the choice the voters will make on September 14.

Indeed, this is not so much a budget as an election battle plan. No wonder Abbott was wary of booby traps.

Aside from wedging the Coalition, the aim is to rekindle the credibility lost by charting a sensible “pathway” back to surplus and identifying some $43 billion in savings that will pay for the big-ticket Labor reforms to school funding and disability insurance.

The budget handed down on Tuesday makes a commendable start, but it is hard to overstate the self-imposed degree of difficulty.

On the one hand, Swan is confident he has a good story to tell and, when it comes to the macro economy and the rest of the world, the evidence is there to support him. An unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent, gross domestic product tipped to be 3 per cent next financial year and inflation under control are not contested – and are broadly in line with last year’s forecasts (though GDP this year is a little less than what was predicted).

The most impressive chart Swan cited in the budget lock-up was one showing that, by 2015, the Australian economy will have grown by 22 per cent since the global financial crisis.

The equivalent figure is 9 per cent for the United States and 2 per cent for Japan, while Europe will be yet to enter positive territory.

On the other hand, the problem for Labor is that credibility is earned by what you do, not what you say you are going to do, and even Labor’s successes tend to be sullied by declarations it didn’t have to make, and were generally driven by poor political judgment.

“There will be no carbon tax,” is the stand-out example, but DisabilityCare is also a case in point. Along with the plan to improve school funding, it is the centrepiece of what, almost certainly, is Labor’s swan song budget. Both policies were crafted after thorough reviews, meaningful consultations and painstaking deliberation.

But what should be Labor’s finest example of world best-practice in policy formulation is weakened because the Prime Minister ruled out an increase in the Medicare levy to pay for the national disability insurance scheme until the scale of the revenue black hole became apparent – when this was always the most logical and sensible approach to take.

Thanks to the plethora of unequivocal declarations in last year’s speech (like “meandering back to surplus would compound the pressures in our economy and push up the cost of living for pensioners and working people”), the credibility gap is even greater when it comes to this year’s pledge to balance the budget by 2015-16 and return a very modest surplus the following year.

The irony is that it was apprehension about Abbott’s ability to wound the government that goaded Gillard and Swan into making the very declarations that have eroded public trust because they didn’t come to pass – and will now be exploited ruthlessly, relentlessly, by the Coalition.

The Opposition Leader gave a taste of his post-budget attack in question time yesterday, when he questioned how 10-year funding commitments on DisabilityCare and school funding could be taken seriously (citing Swan as an authority) and asked if the Prime Minister intended apologising for the broken surplus promise.

Indeed, so toxic are the politics that speaker Anna Burke took the unusual step when Parliament resumed on Tuesday of warning MPs on both sides that she will take a zero tolerance attitude to those who would interrupt Swan’s televised budget speech or Abbott’s reply on Thursday.

Aside from an opposition that can already taste victory, Labor faces an increasingly hostile business community – whose disaffection will have only increased by plans to reap $4 billion by “closing loopholes in the corporate tax system” – and an electorate that has stopped listening.

Will this budget transform the contest? Hardly. Does it give Gillard a foundation to wage a campaign? Yes, it does. Will it instil confidence into a caucus that is bracing itself for a crushing defeat? This is doubtful.

The lesson from last year’s budget is that the real test of how this one stacks up will be in 12 months time, by which time a new Treasurer expects to be in the chair – and blaming Labor’s poor management for the tough calls he has to make.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

01 March
Comments Off on The federal budget at a glance

The federal budget at a glance

More money for schools.ECONOMY
Nanjing Night Net

Budget deficit of $18 billion, balanced by 2015/16 and in surplus by 2016/17

Economic growth of 2.75 per cent, unemployment of 5.75 per cent, inflation forecast at 2.25 per cent

Move to floating carbon price in July 2015, projected to be about $12 a tonne

TAXATION

Tax receipt write-downs of $17 billion in 2012/13 and $60 billion over the four years to 2015/16

Government to address loopholes in corporate tax system to save over $100 million in 2013/14 and $4.2 billion over four years

SPENDING

$9.8 billion in new school funding

$64.6 billion on health funding including $14.3 billion for disability care funded by Medicare levy increase of 0.5 per cent

$3.7 billion on “Living Longer. Living Better” aged care package

$1 billion plan for Australian jobs, with $500 million to create Industry Innovation Precincts

$24 billion for new road and rail infrastructure

$6.2 billion over five years for disaster relief

Defence spending increase to $113 billion over four years

Funding for centenary of Anzac including $25 million for veterans’ mental health services

Funding of $434.1 million over four years for the Royal Commission into Child Sexual Abuse

$75.3 million to reformed Australia Council to support the Arts

SAVINGS

Planned increase to family payments scrapped saving over $600 million.

Baby bonus abolished saving over $150 million.

Overseas development assistance target date deferred by a year to 2017/18

7¢ increase in a pack of 25 cigarettes

AAP

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

01 March
Comments Off on TOPICS: It’s money for nothing

TOPICS: It’s money for nothing

TOPICS keeps being reminded by politicians’ email ‘‘alerts’’ that the budget is in chaos, with deficits ‘‘as far as the eye can see’’.
Nanjing Night Net

So it’s time to raise revenue, and do it fairly. We propose the following measures.

Roundabout abuse toll

Collected from drivers who stop at roundabouts when nothing’s coming, and those who whiz up the left lane to push in front of other cars.

Revenue from the toll will fund local infrastructure. Merewether will have a new hospital and helipad within a month.

Apostrophe misuse tax

To be levied on those who throw in apostrophe’s that shouldn’t be there, and on peoples errant lack of them.

Redundant ‘‘what’’ levy

Also known as the Man of the Match tax – ‘‘We defended better than what they did’’ – this mechanism will also target politicians and such sentences as ‘‘Our economy is better than what it was last year’’.

A Topics government would also look at taxing unwanted hairdresser chat, buying a round at the bar using eftpos, and people who can only talk about work.

Which behaviour would you tax?

Frog fridge tops Tub

WHAT’s the scariest thing in a Hunter fridge?

Previously, Topics ran a photo of the heinous contents of The Tub inside our home refrigerator (old whipped cream is the latest theory).

Some colleagues thought it was the work fridge, leading to a hygiene crackdown from the top. Uh, sorry guys. That explains the glares in the lunch room.

The smart folks at the University of Newcastle reckon they can top The Tub.

‘‘The scariest thing in the University of Newcastle’s environmental biology laboratory’s fridge,’’ says one who emailed us, ‘‘is the frogs, who love their specially designed, temperature-controlled fridge.’’

Topics couldn’t confirm if any French researchers use the lab.

Mysterious artist

IT’s a daydream of many of us that tucked away in our homes, in a dank, forgotten corner, lies a treasure.

Topics doesn’t just mean a set of quoits gathering mold beneath the stairs, unless they belonged to Ned Kelly. We’re talking a relic that goes under the hammer for a life-changing amount, or at least gets you on Antique Roadshow.

Margery Howison, of Arcadia Vale, has four paintings.

They’re strikingly similar, depicting a lush, lakeside scene, and two of them carry the artist’s signature: ‘‘C Arnold’’.

Mrs Howison found two of the works in her late aunty’s house at Merewether, and her son Adam happened to pick up the other two in Newcastle.

‘‘It was a bit eerie, seeing how similar they are,’’ Mrs Howison says.

She doesn’t know if they’re significant but buoyed by tales of priceless art plucked from deceased estates, she’s not about to die wondering.

One of the unsigned paintings is labelled ‘‘The Great North Road, Wyong’’. The other is marked ‘‘Como Road’’.

These seemed like telling clues, except that Wyong Shire Council doesn’t list a Como Road.

REDDIT: Frogs enjoy refrigeration. Apparently.

Can anyone help Mrs Howison solve the mystery of the four paintings? Who’s C Arnold, and where’s Como Road?

PRICELESS: A roundabout abuse toll would raise millions quickly. Picture: Phil Hearne

01 March
Comments Off on Boat with 150 Rohingya Muslims capsizes off Myanmar

Boat with 150 Rohingya Muslims capsizes off Myanmar

Bangkok: A boat carrying up to 150 Rohingya Muslims has capsized off Myanmar’s coast as a cyclone heads towards tens of thousands of others living in refugee camps in low-lying flood-prone paddies and coastal areas of the country.
Nanjing Night Net

An unknown number of people on the boat are missing amid fears many have drowned, UN officials say.

Tropical cyclone Mahasen moving across the Bay of Bengal is expected to hit Myanmar’s western coast late on Thursday with storm surges that could barrel into camps where about 80,000 Rohingya have been living since deadly racial violence forced them from their homes last year.

Human Rights Watch urged Myanmar authorities to immediately evacuate people to higher ground.

“The Burmese (Myanmar) government didn’t heed the repeated warnings by governments and humanitarian aid groups to relocate displaced Muslims ahead of Burma’s rainy season,” said Brad Adams, Asia director of Human Rights Watch.

“If the government fails to evacuate those at risk, any disaster that results will not be natural but man-made,” he said.

Human Rights Watch said Myanmar authorities made limited evacuations as the cyclone grew in intensity earlier this week and numerous camps remain occupied with no apparent plans to move people.

According to the UN more than 140,000 people were displaced in Rakhine state last year and at least half of them are living in low-lying shelters unable to withstand severe storms.

The boat hit rocks off Pauktaw township and sank on Monday night as its passengers “were travelling to another camp ahead of the cyclone,” said a spokeswoman for the UN Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The UN and aid agencies have warned for months of the danger this year’s monsoon season poses to displaced people in Rakhine where about 800,000 Rohingya are stateless and have been described by the UN as among the world’s most persecuted people.

In the past 12 months thousands of Rohingya have attempted the perilous journey by boat south towards Thailand and Malaysia.

Scores are believed to have drowned.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

31 January
Comments Off on Samsung trumpets ‘super-fast’ 5G network tests

Samsung trumpets ‘super-fast’ 5G network tests

5G networks could allow “a wide range of services such as 3D movies and games, real-time streaming of ultra high-definition content, and remote medical services”: Samsung. Photo: Louie DouvisSamsung says it has successfully tested super-fast 5G wireless technology which would eventually allow users to download an entire movie in one second.
Nanjing Night Net

Despite the fact that major countries including Australia, Britain and China have yet to complete their 4G mobile phone network roll-out, the South Korean electronics maker claims its new technology could offer ”ubiquitous” access to ultra high-speed networks operating at 100 times present speeds and offering regular gigabit access.

5G networks could allow ”a wide range of services such as 3D movies and games, real-time streaming of ultra high-definition content, and remote medical services,” Samsung claimed in a blog post.

Tests of the new technology had witnessed data transmission of more than one gigabit per second over a distance of two kilometres.

Independent telecommunications analyst Chris Coughlan said that at such an early stage, the 5G wireless technology could not be compared with the national broadband network. He said there would be questions on how costly the 5G technology would be and how much spectrum it would need to use.

The federal government’s national broadband network will also deliver speeds of up to 1Gbps in some areas by the end of this year, but mobile networks and Labor’s fibre optic broadband network have differing strengths.

Mobile data becomes more congested the more people are using it at the same time, and is at present much more expensive than fixed broadband.

”As a result, subscribers will be able to enjoy a wide range of services such as 3D movies and games, real-time streaming of ultra high-definition content, and remote medical services,” it said.

Samsung said it had found a way to harness millimetre-wave bands, which have proved to be a sticking point for the mobile industry.

The test used 64 antenna elements, which the company said overcame the issue of ”unfavourable propagation characteristics” that have prevented data travelling across long distances using the bands.

South Korea, one of the most wired countries on Earth, already has about 20 million 4G users.

The ”mmWave Mobile Technology” is the first system that claims to be fully fledged, though research into 5G has been going on in laboratories around the world for some time. Last year, Britain’s University of Surrey announced £35 million ($54 million) funding for a research centre back by Huawei, Samsung, Fujitsu, Telefonica and others.

Until now, however, scientists have believed that high-frequency wavebands were typically not suitable for the long-range communications required by mobile networks.

”The implementation of a high-speed 5G cellular network requires a broad band of frequencies, much like an increased water flow requires a wider pipe,” Samsung said. ”While it was a recognised option, it has been long believed that the millimetre-wave bands had limitations in transmitting data over long distances due to its unfavorable propagation characteristics.”

Samsung’s new research has concentrated at much higher frequencies and the company claims it has worked over distances up to two kilometres. ”Samsung’s new adaptive array transceiver technology has proved itself as a successful solution,” the company claims. ”It transmits data in the millimetre-wave band at a frequency of 28GHz at a speed of up to 1.056Gbps to a distance of up to two kilometres. The adaptive array transceiver technology, using 64 antenna elements, can be a viable solution for overcoming the radio propagation loss at millimetre-wave bands, much higher than the conventional frequency bands ranging from several hundred MHz to several GHz.”

Telegraph, London

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

31 January
Comments Off on Treasurer Wayne Swan’s budget speech 2013

Treasurer Wayne Swan’s budget speech 2013

STRONGER ECONOMY, SMARTER NATION, FAIRER SOCIETY
Nanjing Night Net

Tonight this Labor government makes the choice to keep our economy strong and invest in our future.

To support jobs and growth in an uncertain world.

To chart a pathway to surplus through responsible savings.

And to ensure no Australian is left behind because of the circumstances of their birth or misfortune in their life.

Speaker, no government gets to choose the global economic circumstances in which the budget is framed.

But you do get to choose the priorities for the nation.

Labor chooses a stronger, smarter and fairer Australia.

An Australia where our school children get the opportunity to reach their full potential with $9.8 billion invested in new school funding.

An Australia which gives dignity to people with severe and permanent disability through the historic $14.3 billion investment in DisabilityCare Australia. This is a proud moment for our country.

An Australia with the critical infrastructure we need to drive our economy forward, with $24 billion of new investment in road and rail.

An Australia where our prosperity spreads opportunity to every postcode in our nation.

Speaker, tonight, we put in place the savings to fully fund these priority investments for 10 years and beyond, an achievement unprecedented in our nation’s history.

We make these historic investments in the Labor tradition from a position of economic strength.

The facts are, under Labor’s economic leadership:

• Our economy is 13 per cent bigger than before the GFC.

• More than 950,000 jobs have been created with more Australians in work than ever before – there is no fact we are more proud of.

• For the first time ever we have a Triple-A credit rating from all three global agencies with a stable outlook – one of only eight countries to do so.

• And all this with contained inflation and new record low interest rates.

That is because we got the big calls right on the economy.

Now we enter a period where new choices must be made.

Challenging global conditions and the high Australian dollar have put huge pressure on the budget and led to a significant reduction in expected tax receipts totalling over $60 billion over the four years to 2015-16.

Speaker, we face a clear choice.

Radical cuts to the bone that would risk jobs and our economy. Or a sensible, calm and responsible approach that puts jobs first. We have always put the interests of working Australians first. In this budget, we do so again.

Just because the global economy took an axe to our budget, does not mean we should take an axe to our economy.

Just as we shielded Australia from the worst during the GFC, we will continue to follow the responsible middle course.

Two simple but powerful words are at the heart of our approach and they mean an awful lot to every Australian watching tonight – jobs and growth.

Speaker, because of our deep commitment to jobs and growth we have taken the responsible course to delay the return to surplus, and due to a savage hit to tax receipts there will be a deficit of $18 billion in 2013-14.

The alternative, cutting to the bone, puts Australian jobs and our economy at risk, something this Labor government will never accept.

Speaker, this is our choice.

To those who would take us down the European road of savage austerity I say the social destruction that comes from cutting too much, too hard, too fast is not the Australian way.

Instead, we’re making targeted, sustainable savings of $43 billion over the forward estimates.

To deliver a measured and balanced consolidation of around 0.5 per cent of GDP a year on average from 2013-14.

Since mid-2009 we have fully offset all new spending with savings measures and that continues tonight.

This discipline gives Australia a responsible pathway back to balance in 2015-16 and surplus by 2016-17.

It is a fairer way forward, by helping modern families with targeted assistance for the everyday pressures, by delivering the Schoolkids Bonus and through the Low Income Super Contributions.

A smarter way forward providing businesses with a skilled workforce, boosting incentives to innovate and adapt, to reap the benefits of the Asian Century.

And a stronger way forward, investing in education and training, boosting productivity, protecting and creating jobs, growing the economy, and keeping inflation and interest rates low.

ECONOMIC AND FISCAL STRENGTH

Speaker, tonight we build on Australia’s resilience during the global financial crisis and its fallout.

Our nation’s outlook is bright and our economy is set to grow faster than most of the developed world.

Real GDP growth of 2.75 per cent in 2013-14 and 3 per cent in 2014-15.

By mid 2015, our economy will be 22 per cent bigger than before the global financial crisis, outstripping every major advanced economy.

An economy in transition

From this position of strength, our economy is undergoing an important transition.

Our nation’s largest resource investment boom is shifting to a boom in production and exports.

As the resources boom enters its new phase, the economy is also transitioning towards broader sources of economic growth.

And while our opportunities are great and our future bright, this transition will not be seamless.

Unemployment is forecast at 5.75 per cent in 2013-14, up slightly, but still among the lowest in the developed world.

This transition comes against the backdrop of a profound shift in the global economy.

The weight of economic activity is shifting towards our region. As the Asian century unfolds, there are many new opportunities.

Not just in mining, also for our farmers, manufacturers, and service providers, but only if we make the choice to invest.

Because you don’t want to find yourself in the fastest growing region in the world, with yesterday’s economy.

You can’t be a first-world economy in the 21st century if you haven’t laid the groundwork to seize the opportunities.

Training a highly skilled, educated and productive workforce.

Supporting business to be innovative and competitive.

Investing in high quality infrastructure.

Ensuring a strong, fair and sustainable tax system.

All achievements of this budget.

And you can’t be a first-world economy in the 21st century if you’re not on the path to a clean energy future.

As is widely accepted, putting a price on carbon pollution is the lowest cost and most efficient way to tackle dangerous climate change.

This budget recognises as we move to an emissions trading scheme the carbon price is likely to be lower as is associated spending, reflecting lower costs to the economy, households and business.

We will continue to deliver existing household assistance, including increases in pensions, allowances, family payments and other benefits, and ensure future assistance remains adequate.

Weaker tax revenue

While our economy remains resilient, powerful global forces and the stubbornly high Australian dollar have savaged budget revenues.

Not since Hawke and Keating floated the dollar has it remained so high.

This has put acute pressure on prices and company profits, weighing more heavily than expected on tax receipts.

Speaker, let’s be clear about the magnitude of the hit to revenue.

This year we face the second largest revenue writedown since the Great Depression.

Since last year’s budget, expected tax receipts for 2012-13 have been written down by $17 billion.

And since our mid year update in October, there has been a total revenue writedown of over $60 billion over the next four years.

Company taxes, capital gains tax, resource rent taxes have all been hit. We’ve seen almost $170 billion wiped off our tax receipts since the GFC.

The tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013-14 is estimated to be 22.2 per cent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the average of the 5 years prior to the GFC.

It’s as simple as this — if we were taxing Australian families and Australian businesses like our predecessors did, we’d have an extra $24 billion in taxes in 2013-14 and be comfortably in surplus every year of the forwards.

The hit to our tax collections will see our very low level of net debt peak at 11.4 per cent of GDP, still less than 1/8th the level of major advanced economies.

This budget sets a sensible pathway to surplus, while making room for the big investments in our nation’s future.

We’ve put in place over $180 billion in responsible savings over six budgets since 2008-09.

And we have been putting structural savings in place since day one.

The long-term savings we’ve made over the last five years add up to over $300 billion by 2020-21.

Of course, these savings involve some very difficult decisions.

But Labor has always tackled the reforms our nation needs.

We take the difficult decisions knowing they allow us to fully fund better schools for our children, the historic creation of DisabilityCare Australia, and of course the next wave of nation building.

BUILDING A SMARTER NATION

Speaker, we know that a smarter Australia means a stronger Australia.

An Australia able to grasp the opportunities of the Asian century.

A skilled workforce and a strong, productive and resilient economy.

We know we’ll only win the economic race in the Asian Century if we win the education race.

Our current school funding system is broken, it’s failing our children.

That’s why we are transforming our nation’s schools by investing $9.8 billion in new school funding.

Delivering more teacher training, extra resources for school libraries, specialist language assistance, and literacy assessments in the early years.

We are also ensuring funding will grow for every school.

The budget fully funds this investment over the next decade, meaning we can return the budget to surplus without leaving our children an education deficit.

Building on our unprecedented investments in early childhood education and care with $660 million to continue the National Partnership that will achieve universal access to preschool.

And establishing a $300 million Early Years Quality Fund to support childcare workers.

Speaker, this Labor government has delivered a 75 per cent funding increase for university places, supporting around 189,000 more university students.

And in this budget we ensure this funding continues to grow sustainably.

Tonight we announce an additional $97 million investment to boost the number of Commonwealth-supported university places, and an extra $186 million for research infrastructure.

Speaker, the investments we make tonight will ensure our children are equipped to take up the high-skill, high-wage jobs of the future.

On this side of the House, we believe every Australian child deserves the same opportunities in life, and a child’s postcode should not determine their future.

BUILDING A FAIRER AUSTRALIA

Speaker, the fair go is at the heart of everything Labor stands for.

That’s why we’re so proud to establish DisabilityCare Australia, the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Supporting Australians with significant and permanent disability has long been in our

nation’s heart.

In March we put it in our nation’s laws, and tonight we put it in our nation’s budget.

Following in the huge footsteps of Medicare and Labor’s record of historic social policy reforms.

In 2018-19 around 460,000 Australians with significant and permanent disability will get the support they deserve.

Our current disability system is underfunded, unfair and fragmented.

For too long, people with disability have been denied the opportunity to live a life many of us take for granted.

For too long, Australia has failed to reform this broken system.

Speaker, tonight we right this wrong.

We provide choice, control and dignity to people with disability.

This could mean the difference between getting the right wheelchair now or waiting three long painful years using a wheelchair that doesn’t fit.

It could mean the difference between a shower every day, or only once a week.

This budget will fully fund our share of DisabilityCare Australia, beyond the next decade.

From 1 July 2014 the Medicare levy will increase by 0.5 a percentage point.

The money raised will be placed in a special fund for 10 years and only used for the additional costs of DisabilityCare Australia.

Tonight, we end the cruel lottery of the current system.

Speaker, the government is investing $64.6 billion in health funding, up 40 per cent since we came to office.

This includes National Health Reform funding for state and territory governments who will receive unprecedented growth of 35 per cent for public hospital services over the next four years.

This includes $14 billion in 2013-14 which grows to $19 billion in 2016-17.

This means that health funding to every state and every territory will grow over the forward estimates.

As a cancer survivor myself, I’ve experienced the high quality treatment provided by our health system but I know more needs to be done to prevent, detect and treat this disease.

Tonight’s budget builds on the $3.5 billion we’ve already invested in cancer prevention, detection, treatment and research.

We continue the fight against cancer, investing over $226 million in world-leading cancer care.

Investing over $100 million in screening for breast, cervical and bowel cancer.

Supporting critical chemotherapy medicines, and investing $23.8 million for life-saving bone-marrow transplants.

Funding a third Prostate Cancer Research Centre and continuing support for the two existing centres.

Supporting CanTeen’s work with young people living with cancer, and supporting those affected by lung cancer.

Speaker, Labor also has a strong record of supporting older Australians.

We introduced the largest single increase in the age pension in 100 years, and we introduced the Superannuation Guarantee, which we’re raising gradually to 12 per cent starting from 1 July this year.

We’re improving aged care services through our $3.7 billion Living Longer. Living Better package.

Tonight marks another step in the Gillard government’s plan to turn Grey into Gold and harness the wisdom of our senior Australians.

We will invest another $127 million to help senior Australians continue their active engagement in society and introduce a pilot program to help downsize their home without affecting their pension.

We’re also tackling entrenched disadvantage.

Committing $777 million to renew the National Partnership on Closing the Gap on Indigenous Health Outcomes.

And funding a new transitional National Partnership to continue vital homelessness services.

BUILDING A STRONGER ECONOMY

So we are investing in Australia’s human capital, at the same time as we invest in our economic capital.

Nation-building infrastructure

We have already invested a massive $36 billion in roads, rail and ports.

Tonight we continue our ambitious program with a new $24 billion investment in the next wave of nation building infrastructure.

It’s critical to invest in both urban road and rail infrastructure.

Traffic congestion costs commuters time with their families and is estimated to cost our economy up to $20 billion a year by 2020 if not addressed.

That’s why we have committed more to urban public transport infrastructure than all our predecessors since Federation combined.

But there is more to be done.

So tonight we’re investing in transformational public transport projects like Brisbane’s Cross River Rail and Melbourne Metro.

These projects will change the way these cities work and allow them to grow into the future.

We’re also putting funds towards productivity-enhancing infrastructure in Sydney — the M4 extension and M5 duplication — and funds that will see the Missing Link between the F3-M2 constructed.

We will partner with the private sector and state governments to deliver these critical projects as efficiently as possible.

We are also investing in the Gateway North Upgrade in Brisbane, Melbourne’s M80 Ring Road, and the South Road Upgrade in Adelaide.

And in our regions we are investing in the Swan Valley Bypass in WA, the Bruce Highway in Queensland, the Pacific Highway in NSW, the Midlands Highway in Tasmania and the Tiger Brennan Drive in the Northern Territory.

These investments will boost productivity, build capacity, improve safety, and relieve congestion, as well as improving the quality of life in our communities across the nation.

The National Broadband Network is putting Australia at the cutting edge of broadband technology and turbocharging productivity for decades to come.

Tonight we announce $12.9 million to connect more local councils to the NBN and provide training for small business and not-for-profits in 20 regional NBN rollout sites.

Supporting business to innovate

Speaker, the strength of our economy also depends on the ability of Australian businesses to win work at home and abroad.

We’re boosting innovation, productivity and competitiveness through our $1 billion Plan for Australian Jobs.

Investing over $500 million to create Industry Innovation Precincts around Australia.

And providing $378 million to stimulate private sector investment in entrepreneurial small to medium-sized enterprises.

Part of our plan to support and create jobs, building on our loss carry-back and instant asset write-off reforms for three million small businesses.

Meeting industry’s skills needs

Speaker, as well as having the infrastructure for the future, we must also ensure our economy has the skilled workers it needs.

Labor has increased annual funding for skills and training by almost 50 per cent.

Tonight we build on that record, with a $69 million Alternative Pathways to the Trades program, providing more flexible pathways for 4000 Australians undertaking trade and technical qualifications.

We have created a $45 million Skills Connect Fund to deliver more effective workplace training for Australian businesses.

Workforce opportunity

Speaker, this Labor government will do everything in its power to boost workforce participation and support transitions to employment.

Tonight we continue our support by allowing Newstart recipients to earn around $1000 more a year before their payments are affected, the first increase in more than a decade.

We are also supporting parents in their efforts to balance work and family with around 280,000 parents already reaping the benefits of the nation’s first Paid Parental Leave scheme.

Our scheme has been in place for two years, is fully funded, affordable, sustainable, equitable, and supported by every member on this side of the House.

Stronger regions, resilient rural communities

Speaker, tonight we announce new reforms to build stronger regions and more resilient rural communities.

Over $330 million to support the historic Tasmanian forests agreement, and continuing our investment in Tasmanian economic growth and jobs.

Nearly $100 million for a new Farm Household Allowance to support farmers in hardship, part of the National Drought Program Reform.

And a new Farm Finance package to help farmers struggling with debt, providing concessional loans, more rural financial counsellors, and a better approach to debt mediation.

This comes on top of the almost $1 billion of investment in the Regional Development Australia Fund supporting the infrastructure needs and sustaining economic growth in Australia’s regions.

We also commit another $200 million for Reef Rescue to help farmers improve the quality of water entering the Great Barrier Reef.

Recovering from natural disasters

Speaker, Australians well know the devastation nature can unleash on our country, our communities, and our people — from floods, cyclones to bushfires.

Since 2010-11, Labor has paid $5.7 billion to the states to support disaster relief.

We expect to pay a further $6.2 billion over the five years from 2012-13, including $1.9 billion to help Queensland through the January floods.

Tonight we invest $40 million to rebuild local council infrastructure to a better and more resilient standard.

Strong foundations

And Speaker, as we build a stronger Australia for the future, we continue to honour those who laid the foundations of our country’s strength.

As the Centenary of Anzac draws near, we honour the hard work and sacrifices of Australian service personnel and their families.

We build on our previous commitment to commemorating the Centenary of Anzac investing a further $25 million and expanding veterans mental health services.

And this budget funds the core defence capabilities required to protect Australia’s national security interests.

Royal Commission

We have also provided the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse with the resources required to go about its important work and ensure survivors have the support they need.

ENDURING SAVINGS

Speaker, this budget makes historic investments in our children’s education, in care for our most vulnerable citizens, and in building our nation.

But you only get to make the big investments if you are willing to make the savings to fund them.

To fund the critical investments over the next decade and to return the budget to surplus, this government has made $43 billion in savings over the forward estimates.

In addition to the savings already mentioned we are:

• improving the sustainability of the family payments system by extending indexation pauses; not proceeding with increases to FTB-A announced in the 2012-13 budget and abolishing the Baby Bonus; while providing new support for families of newborns through FTB-A;

• closing loopholes and protecting the corporate tax base to ensure multinationals and big businesses are not being given an unfair advantage;

• better targeting superannuation tax concessions to improve the system’s fairness,

sustainability and efficiency;

• improving the sustainability of the health budget through phasing out the poorly-targeted Net Medical Expenses Tax Offset and making changes to the timing of Medicare Benefits Schedule indexation;

• changing tobacco indexation to make it more consistent with consumers’ purchasing power;

• continuing to grow overseas development assistance to 0.5 per cent of gross national income, but deferring the target date by one year from 2016-17 to 2017-18; and

• continuing to improve the responsiveness of income tax instalments for all large entities.

CHOOSING OUR FUTURE

Speaker, tonight this Labor government has made the choice — a clear choice — to keep our economy strong and invest in our future.

We’ve chosen to give every child a world class education, and to make sure no Australian is left behind.

We’ve chosen a responsible path to surplus while supporting jobs and growth.

To make our economy stronger, our nation smarter and our society fairer.

Labor has a proud record of making visionary choices that strengthen this great nation.

The Age Pension…Medicare…Universal Superannuation…Paid Parental Leave…the National Broadband Network…Pricing Carbon.

And with the ground-breaking investments I have announced tonight, we build upon that proud Labor tradition.

This is the Australia that Labor governments choose.

Because creating prosperity and spreading opportunity are the values that drive this Labor government every single day.

I commend the Bill to the House.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

31 January
Comments Off on Multinationals and banks targeted

Multinationals and banks targeted

Multinational businesses are the prime targets of a sweeping plan to close down corporate tax loopholes, in a move expected to raise an extra $4.2 billion over the next four years.
Nanjing Night Net

With big downgrades in company tax punching a hole in the government’s revenue forecasts, Labor has tightened rules it says are being exploited by corporate giants.

The group of measures is the second biggest source of savings in the budget, behind the $11.5 billion raised by increasing the Medicare levy, and threatens to further damage Labor’s frosty relations with the big end of town.

The key targets of the crackdown are complex practices that allow big foreign businesses to shift profits into countries where they pay less tax, minimising their Australian liability.

But the local banks are also in the government’s sights, with tougher rules flagged for locally-based, low-taxed banking units that sell their services to overseas customers.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the move to close the range of ‘‘unfair’’ loopholes in the corporate tax system was needed to make sure other taxpayers did not carry an unfair burden.

‘‘Businesses that aggressively exploit tax loopholes gain an unfair advantage over their competitors,’’ Mr Swan said.

‘‘If a few large companies use loopholes to avoid paying their fair share of tax, an greater taxation burden is placed on other taxpayers, like small and medium businesses and individual taxpayers.’’

A key plank of the changes relates to tax breaks that foreign subsidiaries receive on money they have borrowed – often from another arm of the same company.

Until now, foreign subsidiaries have been able to finance up to 75 per cent of their operations with debt, which allows them to make hefty tax deductions.

But the government will raise an extra $1.4 billion by lowering this limit to 60 per cent, following similar moves from cash-strapped governments overseas.

The taxman is also expected to raise an extra $406 million over four years through increased scrutiny of offshore restructuring activity that ‘‘facilitates profit shifting.’’

Big local banks including Macquarie Group are also likely to be affected by tougher rules for domestic units set up by the banks that pay only 10 per cent tax rates rather than 30 per cent.

The government believes the lenders are directing domestic activity into these areas and dodging tax in doing so. It estimates it can raise an extra $320 million over four years by tightening up on the rules, including a ban on different parts of the same bank trading with each other so that they get the tax break.

Mining companies also face changes that will net more for the taxman.

The budget contained measures to tighten the rules on exploration deductions for miners, in a move that is likely to prompt anger among the industry.

The changes are worth $1.1 billion to the government over four years, and are designed to avoid penalising junior miners conducting greenfields exploration.

The changes will have the most impact on companies that purchase a tenement that has previously been explored, by excluding the purchase price of the mining right and certain intangible elements like knowledge from being claimed.

The Government appears to be well aware the change could spark another stoush with the resources industry, and stressed in the budget papers that the government would ‘‘consult closely with industry on the design and implementation of the measure’’.

‘‘This measure will improve the sustainability of this important concession, which recognises that resources exploration is a vital and economically risky activity that has spillover benefits to the economy,’’ the budget papers said.

The government also expects to claw back an extra $60 million through a ban on a strategy known as ‘‘dividend washing’.’ The strategy, used by big domestic investors, allows them to effectively double the tax break they receive from franking credits.

The move to target big business for more tax revenue came as it was revealed that falling company tax receipts were the main reason for the sharp deterioration in the budget’s bottom line.

Forecasts of corporate tax receipts were written down by $24.3 billion over the four years to 2015-16. The big downgrades in company tax have been blamed on falling commodity prices, a stubbornly high dollar that is squeezing many firms, and weak consumer spending.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

31 January
Comments Off on More pain than gain as repair job starts

More pain than gain as repair job starts

The budget takes more than it gives.It was one of those cold yet sunny late autumn days Canberra excels at. It fitted in well with what is probably Wayne Swan’s last budget before Labor enters the winter of opposition: a budget that takes more than it gives but, in the circumstances, is not a bad effort at all.
Nanjing Night Net

This is like no other pre-election budget. In the old days, when governments had money, these budgets would lure us with fistfuls of dollars. This one is different. It takes fistfuls of dollars off us – mostly off Labor’s political enemies such as big corporations, tax avoiders and high-income earners – and locks them away as savings.

Some is taken off ordinary people. Those who screamed for the budget to hack into middle-class welfare have got their way. This budget not only cancels the $11 a week increase in family tax benefit part A due on July 1 but it scraps the baby bonus and freezes the threshold for the full benefit at just over $100,000 for a family with two children, with the benefit cutting out entirely at $113,000.

These are indeed “middle incomes”. Labor is subtly converting Australia’s mainstream family benefit from an entitlement for all families to a welfare benefit for those who need it. How will the Liberals, who denounce excessive welfare spending, respond to Labor following their advice?

The net impact of the budget is to cut spending by $6 billion over the next four years and raise revenues by $29 billion. Very little of that would happen in 2013-14 but, by 2015-16, these measures would withdraw $12 billion a year from the economy – even after the budget’s new spending.

Sure, we are likely to have a new government by then, with different priorities. But it will have to start from where Labor leaves off. It will have to honour, or extricate itself from, the agreements Labor makes with the state governments, which will naturally put their own and their state’s interests first.

And one of the things to admire in this budget is the mixture of economic responsibility and political rat cunning that has gone into designing the dramatic shift from deep budget deficit to small budget surplus within three years.

Responsible, in that it gives priority to avoiding anything that will rock’s Australia boat in the uncertain seas of 2013-14. The budget consolidation does not begin until 2014-15, assuming the economy survives in good shape, with other things picking up the slack left by the mining boom’s demise.

Readers may be unaware of the fears weighing on policymakers when they ponder what might take over from mining as the engine of growth. Every previous mining boom has ended in a bust – and this has been one hell of a boom.

Yes, the budget has to get back to surplus – and in reasonable time. But it does not have to be in 2013-14, when the first responsibility on policymakers is to do nothing to increase the risk of Australia heading into recession. A medium-term consolidation strategy was the right one and this budget takes it.

The deficit is tipped to shrink from $19.4 billion this year to $18 billion in 2013-14. But that is entirely due to the government pre-paying $1.1 billion of 2013-14 grants to local government so they become part of this year’s deficit. Neat, but shifty.

It’s an impossible year to forecast, but Treasury’s estimate of 2.75 per cent growth in 2013-14 matches the market’s view and seems as good a guess as any. If wrong, it’s not to make the numbers look good but because the future is hard to forecast.

It is appropriate that the budget repair job is being done after next year and appropriate that it be mostly on the revenue side, because that’s where the damage was done.

In the past four years, revenue as a share of gross domestic product has been the lowest since the last recession. Revenue this year is forecast to be 23 per cent of GDP, compared with the Howard government’s post-GST average of 25.4 per cent. Spending is estimated to be 24.2 per cent, the same as Howard’s post-GST average.

If you hear Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb tell you there’s been no revenue slump, you tell them to look at pages 10-6 and 10-7 of Budget Paper 1. It’s all there, in numbers prepared by the same impartial public servants who served them in government.

But this is a budget that will win more applause from economists than voters. The one bunny pulled out of the hat was $3 billion for the Melbourne metro. For most of us, there was more pain than gain.

And Wednesday in Canberra is forecast to be cold and showery.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.

31 January
Comments Off on Resource price cycle taking Swan for a ride

Resource price cycle taking Swan for a ride

Federal budget 2013: Full coverageMichael Gordon: Hedging wedgingAdele Ferguson: Politics not economicsTim Colebatch: More pain than gainPeter Hartcher: Labor to leave with some dignityRoss Gittins: Labor chooses brave way out
Nanjing Night Net

There has certainly been revenue erosion. According to the latest budget papers, since the mid-year economic statement alone, events beyond the government’s control have reduced tax by an estimated $61 billion over the four years to 2015-2016. The expected company tax take is $24.3 billion lower.

Government decisions including the Medicare levy top-up ($11.4 billion) and business tax loophole closures ($4.1 billion) are predicted to boost receipts by $25.5 billion over four years, and the government is also lowering its spending by $18.3 billion.

Total revenue in 2014-2015 of $411.6 billion will, however, still be $17.2 billion or 4 per cent lower than it was expected to be in the May 2012 Budget. Tax revenue will be $12.7 billion lower.

Most people thought last year’s budget was overly optimistic in its forecasts. I wrote at the time that it had more rubber in it than Gumby. But not everyone could see a shortfall of this magnitude looming. One of the themes of the resources boom that peaked at the end of 2011 was that Australia had entered a commodity price super-cycle, where prices and Australia’s terms of trade would stay “stronger for longer” as Asia continued to industrialise and create a new consumer class.

The current downturn is only a chapter in the longer story. Commodity prices are the tell-tale: iron ore and coal are about 35 per cent below their boom-time peaks and all metals are below their highs, but the Reserve Bank’s commodity price index is still three times higher than a decade ago.

However, Labor is also off the mark when it blames the budget deficit blow-out on external factors alone. One of the supposed culprits, the Australian dollar, has done pretty much what was expected. Last year’s budget anticipated an average exchange rate of $US1.03, and the mid-year statement predicted $US1.02: the one-year average was in fact $US1.03.

What Treasury and the government did not predict, however was what the continuing strength of the Aussie would do to the non-resources economy. It pushed up export prices, pulled down import prices, sent already cautious consumers overseas and backed the government into a corner. It was committed to spend money that was not going to show up.

The cuts outlined in the budget reduce spending growth from 2.2 per cent in 2013-2014 to 1.2 per cent by 2015-2016. Spending as a percentage of GDP falls, and the cuts combine with revenue-raising measures to deliver a wafer-thin surplus by 2015-2016 and a slightly larger one (0.6 per cent of GDP) the following year.

Labor’s tactical call that heavier surgery would be dangerous at this stage is supported by the ratings agencies. They see no threat to Australia’s triple A credit rating, as long as Australia charts a medium-term path back to surpluses

It makes this budget feel that much less permanent though – one delivered by a government that is likely to be replaced in a little over four months, with a mini-budget from the new government likely in December.

Budget aficionados will recall 1996, when the newly-elected Howard government delivered its first Budget. Peter Costello declared that the deficit was out of control and handed down a crushing plan to cut outlays by 0.5 per cent in the first year, and by 2.1 per cent in year two. Without a serious tax increase (the GST is the ideal vehicle but for some reason is sacred) it would take cuts of similar magnitude to quickly push the budget back on a path of sustained, sizeable surpluses. Whether an Abbott government would have the desire and bottle to do this is unclear.

Business was the loudest lobby for the budget to set some sort of course towards surpluses, so there should be only muted groans on news that rumoured corporate tax crackdowns have been delivered. Anxiety will be further eased by the fact that offshore groups cop the brunt of the changes.

Thin capitalisation rules that limit tax deductions on debt raised by foreign-owned entities have been toughened to raise $1.5 billion over four years. Loopholes in company consolidation rules that have enabled companies to “double dip” deductions will be closed to drag in $540 million, and immediate full tax deductibility for the acquisition of mining rights and associated exploration will be replaced by a 15 year depreciation regime.

The exploration tax change rakes in $1.1 billion over four years and adds weight to the resources sector at a time when lower prices are already a drag on activity.

Government sources say, however, that there has been a growing trend in the resources sector, as the boom matures, for companies to claim write-offs on the acquisition of “exploration” rights that are in fact ownership shuffles involving resources that are well defined, moving towards production, and priced accordingly. Such deals have killed the goose.

This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on Nanjing Night Net.